Yukio Noguchi, a well-known Japanese economist and consultant at the Waseda University Business and Finance Research Center, believes that we cannot expect Bitcoin prices to rise again. In his book and recent articles, Noguchi put forward his case eloquence. He recently published an article in Diamond Weekly to clarify his position, but he has been doing this since January of this year and published a book in December last year.
"Because you can trade on Bitcoin futures now, you will never see a quick rise again"
Noguchi pointed out that the price of BTC is now almost one-third of that in December last year. He believes that because it is now possible to trade through Bitcoin futures, people can no longer see a rapid surge.
On the one hand, he said that because the price of bitcoin has fallen, the cost of sending bitcoin is now back to a level cheaper than bank transactions, which is welcome.
He believes that the introduction of the futures market has greatly reduced the price. In January of this year, he convincingly pointed out that the bitcoin price collapse was the beginning of bitcoin futures sales. "The bitcoin price is a bubble. First, now we see a return to normal value. The San Francisco Federal Bank also said in a report that the introduction of bitcoin futures trading caused prices to fall. In addition, the bitcoin market is heading for short selling bitcoins. The possibility of futures, this will also help to drive down prices.
Noguchi pointed out that a paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on May 7 "How to change the price of Bitcoin in futures trading" is a key passage:
“From Bitcoin to mid-2009, the price is still below $4,000. In the second half of 2017, it climbed to nearly $20,000, but it declined rapidly from mid-December. The peak price and the bit of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Coin futures trading is consistent. It seems no coincidence that the rapid rise in prices and subsequent declines after the introduction of futures. On the contrary, it is consistent with the trading behavior that is usually accompanied by the introduction of assets into the futures market."
Noguchi insists that, in fact, most investors are predicting that the price of Bitcoin will continue to fall, especially when some people can make money by selling this cryptocurrency.
He also believes that allowing cryptocurrency to fork, which makes them feel that they can get new cryptocurrency for free, and also lower the price.
So does he think this will lead to a decline in bitcoin popularity?
Surprisingly, Noguchi thinks this is a good thing. As bitcoin prices have fallen, it has become a more attractive way to send money. He calculated that at the current price, if you have to use Mitsubishi UFJ Bank to send money, the cost of 30,000 yen or more is 432 yen. However, since the current value of Bitcoin is still high, the fee paid by regular bank transfer is cheaper than Bitcoin, unless the value of Bitcoin falls to 675,000 yen. When Bitcoin returns to this level, it will eventually trade at its normal value.