Recently, Quartz, a well-known foreign technology website, released a comparison chart of the mid-term price trends of Bitcoin in 2014 and 2018. Based on the trend of Bitcoin from December 2017 to June this year, Bitcoin’s current price correction cycle may be much shorter than the 2014 price correction.
Highly similar in 2014 and 2018
From December 4, 2013 to January 4, 2015, Bitcoin prices fell more than 80% in 400 days, setting the worst price correction record in history. The mid-term decline in bitcoin prices lasted for four months, during which time Bitcoin rebounded to the previous support level and remained above that level, after which it inevitably fell more than 80%.
In 2014, Bitcoin fell more than 70% in about 300 days. In 2018, Bitcoin has fallen more than 72% in less than 200 days, and the price decline has accelerated significantly compared to the 2014 price correction.
If we compare the bitcoin price chart from 2018 to the present with the bitcoin price chart from December 2013 to January 2015 (compress the bitcoin price chart from 2013 to 2015), we can find that two times The price trend within the segment is almost the same except for one key difference: speed.
Comparing the year-to-date and year-to-date bitcoin price movements in 2014, it can be said that Bitcoin is experiencing an accelerated version of the 2014 price correction. At a similar point in time, Bitcoin experienced a similar decline and a modified rebound, and is now further down to the bottom of the stable price range.
Comparing the chart of bitcoin price movements from the beginning of the year to 2014 and the compression chart for 2014, as shown below, we can find many similarities.
Shorter price correction cycle
On June 30, Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX Digital Currency Exchange, said in an interview with CNBC Fast Trader that Bitcoin could go through an 80% price correction and fall to the bottom of $3,000 to $5,000.
“In just half a year, Bitcoin can be revised from a high of $20,000 to $6,000. Bitcoin will find the bottom in the range of $3,000 to $5,000. But it is expected that there will be positive regulatory decisions soon, maybe The exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission will make Bitcoin climb to $20,000 or even $50,000 by the end of 2018.”
Given that Bitcoin has experienced the 2014 price correction in almost a fast-forward mode, and considering the current market conditions and industry regulatory differences, the price correction for Bitcoin in 2018 is likely to end soon.
In addition, as Hayes said, unforeseen regulatory changes may occur in the US government or any other leading cryptocurrency market, which will result in price recovery for Bitcoin and other major digital assets.
In particular, if ETFs or publicly traded instruments are launched in the US financial market, they will bring tangible cash to the digital currency market. Since primary dealers must enter the market to obtain inventory, there will be a large amount of real money to subscribe for digital currency assets, and bitcoin prices will rise rapidly with strong momentum and demand.